On the first trading day of the A-share New Year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, and the major industry sectors rose generally.
Zhongxin Jingwei client January 2 nd Today (2 nd) is the first trading day of A shares in 2020. Stimulated by good news, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, and the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3066.34 points, up 0.53%; The Shenzhen Component Index reported 10509.12 points, up 0.75%; Growth enterprise market index reported 1811.22 points, up 0.73%.
Data Map: Stock Exchange Hall. China News Service reporter Liu Zhongjun photo
On the disk, major industry sectors generally rose, financial stocks collectively strengthened, and brokerage stocks floated across the board, with Pacific, Nanjing Securities, Huaxin, TF Securities and Huaan Securities among the top gainers; Bank stocks such as Suzhou Bank, Qingnong Commercial Bank, Xi ‘an Bank, Changshu Bank and Qingdao Bank were among the top gainers.
Paper stocks are active, and Minfeng Special Paper and Bohui Paper have daily limit; Real estate stocks rose, Harbin Hi-Tech and Lushang developed daily limit, while Beijing Investment Development, Chongqing Development and Jinke shares rose. Oil, agriculture, airport shipping, communication equipment, media, environmental protection, computers and other sectors are strong; Logistics, gas and water, nonferrous metals, clothing and home textiles, electricity and other sectors rose relatively narrowly.
Liquor stocks were in a downturn, with Kweichow Moutai opening 4.65% lower. The stock announced in the morning that it is expected to achieve a net profit of about 40.5 billion yuan in 2019, a year-on-year increase of about 15%.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened on the 2 nd. Source: Wind
The central bank lowered the RRR across the board
On the first day of 2020, the central bank sent a big red envelope!
On January 1st, the central bank announced that the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions (excluding finance companies, financial leasing companies and auto financing companies) will be lowered by 0.5 percentage point from January 6th, so as to support the development of the real economy and reduce the actual cost of social financing. The relevant person in charge of the central bank said that the comprehensive RRR cut reflected countercyclical adjustment and released more than 800 billion yuan of long-term funds.
The above-mentioned person in charge also said that the RRR cut will reduce the capital cost of banks by about 15 billion yuan per year, and the actual cost of social financing can be reduced through bank transmission, especially for small and micro enterprises and private enterprises.
Ming Ming, chief analyst of fixed income of CITIC Securities Research Department, said that the Spring Festival in 2020 is earlier than in previous years, and the liquidity environment is affected by many factors, including: small pressure of fund maturity, obvious increase in cash demand, and strong uncertainty in the strength and rhythm of tax payment, fiscal expenditure and special bond issuance. The central bank’s liquidity arrangements for the Spring Festival by lowering the RRR and opening the market will create a relatively stable interest rate on funds.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, pointed out that on the New Year’s Day and the first day of the New Year, the central bank announced a 0.5% reduction in the deposit reserve ratio, which has greatly benefited the economy and the capital market. Before the holiday, the A-share market continued the trend of slow growth, and the market successfully stood at 3,000 points. Before the holiday, the market volume increased, especially the brokerage stocks regarded as the market vane continued to attack, which established this round of cross-year market. After the holiday, the market will undoubtedly continue its upward trend and launch a spring offensive. According to experience, spring is often an important time window for the market to do more. This RRR cut is undoubtedly a catalyst for the market and will further promote the sharp rebound of the A-share market.
Photo by Xin Jingwei Xiong Jiali in the data map
Institution: A-share "spring market" can still be expected
In 2019, the transcripts handed over by A shares were very eye-catching!
On December 31, 2019, A shares stood firm at 3,000 points, with a cumulative increase of 22.30% for the whole year, ranking tenth in terms of historical increase and the second best year in the past decade. The total turnover of the two cities reached 127.41 trillion yuan, up 41.95% from 2018, making it the second highest in history. The annual net inflow of northbound funds was 351.7 billion yuan, an increase of 41.12% over 2018, a record high since the opening of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
The new year has begun, what kind of performance will A shares have?
CITIC Securities believes that in 2020, A-shares will enter the second stage of this 3-5 year bull market which will start in 2019. Under the macro-economic decisive victory, capital market reform and the recovery of corporate profits, A shares are expected to usher in a "well-off cow" in 2-3 years. In terms of rhythm, A-shares performed well in the second and fourth quarters of 2020. In the fourth quarter, fundamentals are expected to open up space, industry and finance will be fully launched, and the index will increase even more than in the second quarter.
Guojin Securities said that the "spring market" of A shares in 2020 can still be expected, but the starting time may be around the Spring Festival in 2020. In the first half of the year, "pig inflation restricts monetary policy" and "investors’ trading structure is more similar", which makes the trend of A shares in the first half of the year in a volatile and repeated trend, and the first half of the year is relatively optimistic about the A-share market in February, March and April after the Spring Festival. On the whole, the opportunities of A shares in 2020 far outweigh the risks. From the perspective of the whole year of 2020, it is predicted that the trend of A-shares will change from "repeatedly bottoming out" to "structural bull market". It is estimated that the operating range of Shanghai Composite Index will be 2800 -3500 points in 2020.
Shen Wanhongyuan said that the reform dividend will be released in 2020, and the logic of improving the A-share capital supply seems to be smoother, but it is difficult to significantly improve the profit growth rate, which may inhibit the valuation improvement. Spring is the first window for improvement of numerator and denominator in 2020, and we are optimistic about the market in spring 2020.
According to China Merchants Securities, A-shares have a big cycle every seven years. In early 2019, the improvement of liquidity pushed the bear-cow turning point to start a new upward cycle. In 2020, residents’ funds are expected to accelerate into the market to boost the market. It is judged that the A-share market will continue to maintain a good profit-making effect in 2020, and it is necessary to increase the allocation of equity assets in 2020 to obtain excess returns. Science and technology have entered an upward cycle, and the capital market has started a new round of reform, providing a foundation for improving risk appetite.
Industrial Securities believes that on the whole, in 2020, the market will be dominated by the gradual shock of the central government and seize structural opportunities. Looking forward to the general trend of liquidity easing in 2020, the prospect of the 14 th Five-Year Plan and the acceleration of opening up will bring opportunities for valuation improvement for the stock market and related industries. Under the guidance of "quartet" such as national attention, resident allocation, institutional allocation and global allocation, the era of rights and interests that truly belongs to China is expected to officially open, and A shares are experiencing the first opportunity of "growing cattle". (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in this article are for reference only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, so you should be cautious when entering the market. )